Real Betis II 1–2 Linense: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Linense

Raúl García 21'

Leandro Martínez 32'

Gerard Oliva 13'

11/19/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Benito Villamarín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Betis II40%

×Draw28%

Linense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchLinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Real Betis II

1.25

Linense

1.07

Real Betis II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.12

creates per match

0.47

1.67

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Real Betis II

1.12

Linense

0.47

allows per match

Real Betis II

1.67

Linense

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Linense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

68%

Real Betis II or Linense

72%

Draw or Linense

60%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

18%

Linense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

71%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

36%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

13%

Linense 1+ goals

66%

Linense 2+ goals

29%

Linense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

56%

Linense (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Linense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Linense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Linense attack 0.47 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Betis II scores more

40%

level

28%

Linense scores more

32%

Real Betis II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Gerard Oliva

15'

M. Baro

18'

M. Sanhaji← Juan Cruz

21'

Raúl García

32'

Leandro Martínez

46'

Ángel Baena← Marc Baró

46'

Raúl Tavares← Fran Callejón

55'

J. A. Lara

59'

R. Tavares

60'

F. Martinez

70'

Leo Vázquez← Fran Delgado

70'

Alhassan Koroma← Antoñito

74'

A. Koroma

80'

Juanito Serrano← José Lara

86'

A. Bandaogo

88'

I. Jaúregui← A. Coulibaly

90+2'

A. Baena Perez

90+5'

M. Cham← Leandro Martínez

Real

Linense

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⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Manel Ruano

18'▲M. Sanhaji←▼Juan Cruz

46'▲Ángel Baena←▼Marc Baró

46'▲Raúl Tavares←▼Fran Callejón

70'▲Leo Vázquez←▼Fran Delgado

80'▲Juanito Serrano←▼José Lara

Real Betis II substitutes

SanhajiBaenaTavaresVázquezSerranoSiboHermosoVidalMizzian

Manager: Romerito

70'▲Alhassan Koroma←▼Antoñito

88'▲I. Jaúregui←▼A. Coulibaly

90+5'▲M. Cham←▼Leandro Martínez

Linense substitutes

KoromaJaúreguiChamLópezLavelaFitoChironiSaygbeKaniaArroyo