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Real Betis II vs Lebrijana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lebrijana
Lebrijana
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Betis II75%
×Draw16%
Lebrijana9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
2.40
Lebrijana
0.70

Real Betis II creates 243% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
3.07
Lebrijana
0.60

allows per match

Real Betis II
0.79
Lebrijana
1.73

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Lebrijana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Lebrijana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
91%
Real Betis II or Lebrijana
84%
Draw or Lebrijana
25%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
52%
Lebrijana wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
91%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
69%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
42%
Lebrijana 1+ goals
50%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
16%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
89%
Lebrijana (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Lebrijana away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 3.07 + Lebrijana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.40

Lebrijana attack 0.60 + Real Betis II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Real Betis II scores more
75%
level
16%
Lebrijana scores more
9%

Real Betis II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Betis II 5 – 0 Lebrijana

Real Betis II beat Lebrijana 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.