Lebrijana 0–2 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

Lebrijana

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Betis II

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lebrijana31%

×Draw26%

Real Betis II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LebrijanaExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.46

Lebrijana

1.18

Real Betis II

1.46

Real Betis II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

1.29

creates per match

1.75

1.18

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Lebrijana

1.29

Real Betis II

1.75

allows per match

Lebrijana

1.18

Real Betis II

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lebrijana+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebrijana ↓

Real Betis II →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lebrijana or draw

56%

Lebrijana or Real Betis II

74%

Draw or Real Betis II

69%

Winning margin

Lebrijana wins by 2+

12%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lebrijana 1+ goals

69%

Lebrijana 2+ goals

33%

Lebrijana 3+ goals

12%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

77%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

43%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lebrijana (draw refunded)

41%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lebrijana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lebrijana attack 1.29 + Real Betis II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Real Betis II attack 1.75 + Lebrijana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lebrijana scores more

31%

level

26%

Real Betis II scores more

44%

Real Betis II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lebrijana vs Real Betis II

Real Betis II beat Lebrijana 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.

Lebrijana vs Real Betis II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lebrijana vs Real Betis II