Real Betis II 4–3 Gerena: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Gerena

12/21/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 18Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Betis II65%

×Draw20%

Gerena15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchGerena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.95

Real Betis II

2.17

Gerena

0.95

Real Betis II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 76 away

3.07

creates per match

1.11

0.79

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Real Betis II

3.07

Gerena

1.11

allows per match

Real Betis II

0.79

Gerena

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Gerena →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

85%

Real Betis II or Gerena

80%

Draw or Gerena

35%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

41%

Gerena wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

89%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

64%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

36%

Gerena 1+ goals

61%

Gerena 2+ goals

25%

Gerena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

81%

Gerena (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 3.07 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.17

Gerena attack 1.11 + Real Betis II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Betis II scores more

65%

level

20%

Gerena scores more

15%

Real Betis II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff