Gerena vs Real Betis II: Preview & Prediction

Gerena

CANC

22:00

Real Betis II

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 37Estadio José Juan Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gerena36%

×Draw26%

Real Betis II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GerenaExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.34

Gerena

1.29

Real Betis II

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 16 away

1.51

creates per match

1.75

0.94

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Gerena

1.51

Real Betis II

1.75

allows per match

Gerena

0.94

Real Betis II

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Real Betis II →

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gerena or draw

62%

Gerena or Real Betis II

74%

Draw or Real Betis II

64%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+

16%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals

72%

Gerena 2+ goals

37%

Gerena 3+ goals

14%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

74%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

39%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)

48%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Real Betis II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Betis II attack 1.75 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gerena scores more

36%

level

26%

Real Betis II scores more

38%

Real Betis II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gerena host Real Betis II

May 9, 2020: Gerena take on Real Betis II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gerena host Real Betis II at Estadio José Juan Romero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Gerena vs Real Betis II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Gerena host Real Betis II