Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Betis II vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
3/1/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Betis II36%
×Draw26%
Fuenlabrada38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
1.35
Fuenlabrada
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
1.12
Fuenlabrada
1.11

allows per match

Real Betis II
1.67
Fuenlabrada
1.58

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
62%
Real Betis II or Fuenlabrada
74%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
64%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
16%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
74%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
39%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
15%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
75%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
40%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
49%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fuenlabrada attack 1.11 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Betis II scores more
36%
level
26%
Fuenlabrada scores more
38%

Fuenlabrada at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Betis II vs Fuenlabrada

Real Betis II and Fuenlabrada drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.