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Fuenlabrada vs Real Betis II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Real Betis II
Real Betis II
11/29/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fuenlabrada48%
×Draw27%
Real Betis II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuenlabrada
1.38
Real Betis II
0.92

Fuenlabrada creates 50% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Fuenlabrada
1.16
Real Betis II
0.89

allows per match

Fuenlabrada
0.95
Real Betis II
1.60

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par
Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Real Betis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw
75%
Fuenlabrada or Real Betis II
73%
Draw or Real Betis II
52%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
23%
Real Betis II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
75%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
40%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
16%
Real Betis II 1+ goals
60%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
23%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
65%
Real Betis II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.16 + Real Betis II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Real Betis II attack 0.89 + Fuenlabrada defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more
48%
level
27%
Real Betis II scores more
25%

Fuenlabrada at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuenlabrada vs Real Betis II

Fuenlabrada beat Real Betis II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Torres in Fuenlabrada.