Real Betis II 0–0 Ceuta: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ceuta

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Betis II58%

×Draw23%

Ceuta20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchCeuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.96

Real Betis II

1.83

Ceuta

0.96

Real Betis II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

3.07

creates per match

1.13

0.79

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Real Betis II

3.07

Ceuta

1.13

allows per match

Real Betis II

0.79

Ceuta

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Ceuta →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

80%

Real Betis II or Ceuta

77%

Draw or Ceuta

42%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

33%

Ceuta wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

84%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

54%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

28%

Ceuta 1+ goals

62%

Ceuta 2+ goals

25%

Ceuta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

75%

Ceuta (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 3.07 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Real Betis II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Betis II scores more

58%

level

23%

Ceuta scores more

20%

Real Betis II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff