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Ceuta vs Real Betis II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta
Ceuta
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Real Betis II
Real Betis II
2/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceuta47%
×Draw24%
Real Betis II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta
1.73
Real Betis II
1.31

Ceuta creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ceuta
2.40
Real Betis II
1.75

allows per match

Ceuta
0.87
Real Betis II
1.06

finishing

Ceuta+0.00on par
Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta ↓

Real Betis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ceuta or draw
71%
Ceuta or Real Betis II
76%
Draw or Real Betis II
53%

Winning margin

Ceuta wins by 2+
25%
Real Betis II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ceuta 1+ goals
82%
Ceuta 2+ goals
52%
Ceuta 3+ goals
25%
Real Betis II 1+ goals
73%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
38%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ceuta (draw refunded)
62%
Real Betis II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta attack 2.40 + Real Betis II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Real Betis II attack 1.75 + Ceuta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ceuta scores more
47%
level
24%
Real Betis II scores more
29%

Ceuta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ceuta 0–2 Real Betis II

Real Betis II beat Ceuta 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.