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Real Betis II vs Antoniano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Antoniano
Antoniano
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Betis II64%
×Draw21%
Antoniano16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
2.05
Antoniano
0.91

Real Betis II creates 125% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 57 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
3.07
Antoniano
1.02

allows per match

Real Betis II
0.79
Antoniano
1.04

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Antoniano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Antoniano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
84%
Real Betis II or Antoniano
79%
Draw or Antoniano
36%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
39%
Antoniano wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
87%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
61%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
33%
Antoniano 1+ goals
60%
Antoniano 2+ goals
23%
Antoniano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
80%
Antoniano (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Antoniano away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 3.07 + Antoniano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 2.05

Antoniano attack 1.02 + Real Betis II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Betis II scores more
64%
level
21%
Antoniano scores more
16%

Real Betis II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Betis II 1 – 2 Antoniano

Antoniano beat Real Betis II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.