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Antoniano vs Real Betis II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Antoniano
Antoniano
CANC
00:00
Real Betis II
Real Betis II
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Antoniano33%
×Draw26%
Real Betis II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antoniano
1.25
Real Betis II
1.42

Real Betis II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 16 away

creates per match

Antoniano
1.43
Real Betis II
1.75

allows per match

Antoniano
1.09
Real Betis II
1.06

finishing

Antoniano+0.00on par
Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antoniano ↓

Real Betis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Antoniano or draw
59%
Antoniano or Real Betis II
74%
Draw or Real Betis II
67%

Winning margin

Antoniano wins by 2+
14%
Real Betis II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Antoniano 1+ goals
71%
Antoniano 2+ goals
36%
Antoniano 3+ goals
13%
Real Betis II 1+ goals
76%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
41%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Antoniano (draw refunded)
45%
Real Betis II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antoniano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antoniano attack 1.43 + Real Betis II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Betis II attack 1.75 + Antoniano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Antoniano scores more
33%
level
26%
Real Betis II scores more
41%

Real Betis II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antoniano face Real Betis II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 returns with Antoniano hosting Real Betis II. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Antoniano host Real Betis II at Estadio Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.