Real Betis II 0–2 Albacete: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Albacete

Rubén Martínez 58'

Manu Fuster 26'

5/21/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Betis II33%

×Draw27%

Albacete40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.33

Real Betis II

1.19

Albacete

1.33

Albacete creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.12

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Real Betis II

1.12

Albacete

1.00

allows per match

Real Betis II

1.67

Albacete

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

60%

Real Betis II or Albacete

73%

Draw or Albacete

67%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

14%

Albacete wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

70%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

33%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

12%

Albacete 1+ goals

74%

Albacete 2+ goals

38%

Albacete 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

45%

Albacete (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Albacete defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Albacete attack 1.00 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Betis II scores more

33%

level

27%

Albacete scores more

40%

Albacete at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

32'

41'

58'

62'

Fran Delgado← Simón Lecea

62'

Marchena← Raúl Tavares

62'

Raúl García← M. Sanhaji

71'

Sergi García← Marc Llinares

72'

José Lara← Fran Callejón

79'

Álvaro Martínez← Juan Cruz

79'

Dani González← Manu Fuster

79'

Èric Montes← Riki Rodríguez

86'

J. Martínez← Jordi Sánchez

86'

Kike Márquez← Rubén Martínez

Real

Albacete

▼

⚽

▼

Martínez

Álvarez

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pablo del Pino

62'▲Fran Delgado←▼Simón Lecea

62'▲Marchena←▼Raúl Tavares

62'▲Raúl García←▼M. Sanhaji

72'▲José Lara←▼Fran Callejón

79'▲Álvaro Martínez←▼Juan Cruz

Real Betis II substitutes

DelgadoMarchenaGarcíaLaraMartínezBandaogoSiboMartínezVidalMizzian

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

71'▲Sergi García←▼Marc Llinares

79'▲Dani González←▼Manu Fuster

79'▲Èric Montes←▼Riki Rodríguez

86'▲J. Martínez←▼Jordi Sánchez

86'▲Kike Márquez←▼Rubén Martínez

Albacete substitutes

GarcíaGonzálezMontesMartínezMárquezJiménezRosićAttipoeGómezRestaGálvezMedina

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 0–2 Albacete

Albacete beat Real Betis II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 21, 2022.

Goals: Manu Fuster (26'), Rubén Martínez (58').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.

Real Betis II vs Albacete — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Betis II 0–2 Albacete