Albacete 1–1 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Betis II

David Del Pozo 31'

Juan Cruz 15'

10/9/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete60%

×Draw24%

Real Betis II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.71

Albacete

1.67

Real Betis II

0.71

Albacete creates 135% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.74

creates per match

0.89

0.53

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Albacete

1.74

Real Betis II

0.89

allows per match

Albacete

0.53

Real Betis II

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Real Betis II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

84%

Albacete or Real Betis II

76%

Draw or Real Betis II

40%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

34%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

81%

Albacete 2+ goals

50%

Albacete 3+ goals

23%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

51%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

16%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

79%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Real Betis II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Betis II attack 0.89 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Albacete scores more

60%

level

24%

Real Betis II scores more

16%

Albacete at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

15'

31'

35'

40'

56'

M. Sanhaji← Juan Cruz

66'

J. Martínez← E. Gómez

72'

Sergi García← Jordi Sánchez

77'

Fran Delgado← Marc Baró

77'

Raúl García← José Lara

77'

Y. Fékir← Mizzian

79'

Luis Martínez← Fran Callejón

81'

D. Del Pozo

84'

Nando García← David Del Pozo

85'

F. Alvarez

90+1'

R. Galvez

90+1'

J. Serrano

Albacete

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

66'▲J. Martínez←▼E. Gómez

72'▲Sergi García←▼Jordi Sánchez

84'▲Nando García←▼David Del Pozo

Albacete substitutes

MartínezGarcíaGarcíaArasaBarragánBoyomoJiménezLlinares

Manager: Manel Ruano

56'▲M. Sanhaji←▼Juan Cruz

77'▲Fran Delgado←▼Marc Baró

77'▲Raúl García←▼José Lara

77'▲Y. Fékir←▼Mizzian

79'▲Luis Martínez←▼Fran Callejón

Real Betis II substitutes

SanhajiDelgadoGarcíaFékirMartínezOrtizRebolloSerranoMarchena