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Réal Bamako vs Mali Coura — Première Division 2019

Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mali Coura
Mali Coura
4/4/2026Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Réal Bamako46%
×Draw30%
Mali Coura24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Bamako
1.20
Mali Coura
0.77

Réal Bamako creates 56% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 13 away

creates per match

Réal Bamako
1.31
Mali Coura
0.85

allows per match

Réal Bamako
0.70
Mali Coura
1.08

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par
Mali Coura+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

Mali Coura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw
76%
Réal Bamako or Mali Coura
70%
Draw or Mali Coura
54%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+
20%
Mali Coura wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals
70%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
34%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
12%
Mali Coura 1+ goals
54%
Mali Coura 2+ goals
18%
Mali Coura 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
66%
Mali Coura (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

Mali Coura away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + Mali Coura defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mali Coura attack 0.85 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Réal Bamako scores more
46%
level
30%
Mali Coura scores more
24%

Réal Bamako at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Réal Bamako 1–0 Mali Coura

Réal Bamako beat Mali Coura 1-0 in Première Division on April 4, 2026.