Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mali Coura vs Réal Bamako — Première Division 2019

Mali Coura
Mali Coura
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
12/13/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mali Coura21%
×Draw30%
Réal Bamako49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali Coura
0.71
Réal Bamako
1.23

Réal Bamako creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 99 away

creates per match

Mali Coura
0.69
Réal Bamako
1.15

allows per match

Mali Coura
1.31
Réal Bamako
0.74

finishing

Mali Coura+0.00on par
Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali Coura ↓

Réal Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mali Coura or draw
51%
Mali Coura or Réal Bamako
70%
Draw or Réal Bamako
79%

Winning margin

Mali Coura wins by 2+
6%
Réal Bamako wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mali Coura 1+ goals
51%
Mali Coura 2+ goals
16%
Mali Coura 3+ goals
4%
Réal Bamako 1+ goals
71%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
35%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mali Coura (draw refunded)
31%
Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali Coura at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali Coura attack 0.69 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + Mali Coura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mali Coura scores more
21%
level
30%
Réal Bamako scores more
49%

Réal Bamako at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mali Coura vs Réal Bamako

Réal Bamako beat Mali Coura 3-0 in Première Division on December 13, 2025.