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Réal Bamako vs COB — Première Division 2019

Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
COB
COB
6/8/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 23Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Réal Bamako46%
×Draw29%
COB25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Bamako
1.25
COB
0.84

Réal Bamako creates 49% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 66 away

creates per match

Réal Bamako
1.31
COB
0.98

allows per match

Réal Bamako
0.70
COB
1.20

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par
COB+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

COB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw
75%
Réal Bamako or COB
71%
Draw or COB
54%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+
21%
COB wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals
71%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
36%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
13%
COB 1+ goals
57%
COB 2+ goals
21%
COB 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
65%
COB (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

COB away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + COB defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

COB attack 0.98 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Réal Bamako scores more
46%
level
29%
COB scores more
25%

Réal Bamako at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Réal Bamako vs COB

COB beat Réal Bamako 1-0 in Première Division on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro in Koulikoro.