COB 0–3 Réal Bamako: Result & Stats

COB

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Réal Bamako

12/22/2022

Première Division · Round 8Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

COB26%

×Draw31%

Réal Bamako43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

COBExpected goals in this matchRéal Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.12

COB

0.80

Réal Bamako

1.12

Réal Bamako creates 40% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 99 away

0.86

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

COB

0.86

Réal Bamako

1.15

allows per match

COB

1.09

Réal Bamako

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

COB+0.00on par

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

COB ↓

Réal Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

COB or draw

57%

COB or Réal Bamako

69%

Draw or Réal Bamako

74%

Winning margin

COB wins by 2+

8%

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

COB 1+ goals

55%

COB 2+ goals

19%

COB 3+ goals

5%

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

67%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

31%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

COB (draw refunded)

38%

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

COB at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

COB attack 0.86 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + COB defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

COB scores more

26%

level

31%

Réal Bamako scores more

43%

Réal Bamako at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff