Real Avilés 2–0 Lenense: Result & Stats

Real Avilés

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lenense

12/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Román Suárez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Avilés52%

×Draw25%

Lenense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real AvilésExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.02

Real Avilés

1.63

Lenense

1.02

Real Avilés creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 96 away

1.54

creates per match

0.76

1.27

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Real Avilés

1.54

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Real Avilés

1.27

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Lenense →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw

76%

Real Avilés or Lenense

75%

Draw or Lenense

48%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+

27%

Lenense wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

80%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

48%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

22%

Lenense 1+ goals

64%

Lenense 2+ goals

27%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

68%

Lenense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.54 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lenense attack 0.76 + Real Avilés defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Avilés scores more

52%

level

25%

Lenense scores more

24%

Real Avilés at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff