Lenense 1–1 Real Avilés: Result & Stats

Lenense

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Avilés

9/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Campo El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lenense37%

×Draw27%

Real Avilés36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchReal Avilés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.25

Lenense

1.28

Real Avilés

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 28 away

1.27

creates per match

1.18

1.32

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Real Avilés

1.18

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Real Avilés

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Real Avilés →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

64%

Lenense or Real Avilés

73%

Draw or Real Avilés

63%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

16%

Real Avilés wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

72%

Lenense 2+ goals

37%

Lenense 3+ goals

14%

Real Avilés 1+ goals

71%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

36%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

51%

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lenense scores more

37%

level

27%

Real Avilés scores more

36%

Lenense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff