Real Avilés 1–1 L'Entregu: Result & Stats

Real Avilés

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

L'Entregu

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Román Suárez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Avilés39%

×Draw26%

L'Entregu35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real AvilésExpected goals in this matchL'Entregu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.27

Real Avilés

1.35

L'Entregu

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 112 away

1.54

creates per match

1.26

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Real Avilés

1.54

L'Entregu

1.26

allows per match

Real Avilés

1.27

L'Entregu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par

L'Entregu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

L'Entregu →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw

65%

Real Avilés or L'Entregu

74%

Draw or L'Entregu

61%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+

18%

L'Entregu wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

74%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

39%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

15%

L'Entregu 1+ goals

72%

L'Entregu 2+ goals

36%

L'Entregu 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

53%

L'Entregu (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

L'Entregu away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.54 + L'Entregu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

L'Entregu attack 1.26 + Real Avilés defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Avilés scores more

39%

level

26%

L'Entregu scores more

35%

Real Avilés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff