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L'Entregu vs Real Avilés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

L'Entregu
L'Entregu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
12/11/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

L'Entregu42%
×Draw27%
Real Avilés30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Entregu
1.33
Real Avilés
1.08

L'Entregu creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

L'Entregu
1.37
Real Avilés
1.18

allows per match

L'Entregu
0.99
Real Avilés
1.29

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw
70%
L'Entregu or Real Avilés
73%
Draw or Real Avilés
58%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+
19%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals
74%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
38%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
15%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
66%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
29%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)
58%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

L'Entregu scores more
42%
level
27%
Real Avilés scores more
30%

L'Entregu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: L'Entregu 1–0 Real Avilés

L'Entregu beat Real Avilés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.