Real Avilés 1–1 Covadonga: Result & Stats

Real Avilés

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Covadonga

Borja Granda 12'

Edu Font 47'

8/23/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Román Suárez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Avilés31%

×Draw25%

Covadonga44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real AvilésExpected goals in this matchCovadonga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.54

Real Avilés

1.25

Covadonga

1.54

Covadonga creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 83 away

1.54

creates per match

1.80

1.27

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Real Avilés

1.54

Covadonga

1.80

allows per match

Real Avilés

1.27

Covadonga

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Covadonga →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw

56%

Real Avilés or Covadonga

75%

Draw or Covadonga

69%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+

13%

Covadonga wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

71%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

36%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

13%

Covadonga 1+ goals

79%

Covadonga 2+ goals

45%

Covadonga 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

41%

Covadonga (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.54 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Real Avilés defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Avilés scores more

31%

level

25%

Covadonga scores more

44%

Covadonga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Borja Granda

47'

Edu Font

56'

Simón Carrero← Alvaro Del Rio

60'

Jorge Cayarga← Diego Gómez

62'

Jaime Álvarez← Jandro

77'

G. Cedrez← Imanol Vergara

90'

Edu García← Diego García

Real

Covadonga

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Viti

60'▲Jorge Cayarga←▼Diego Gómez

77'▲G. Cedrez←▼Imanol Vergara

Real Avilés substitutes

CayargaCedrez

Manager: Fermín Álvarez

56'▲Simón Carrero←▼Alvaro Del Rio

62'▲Jaime Álvarez←▼Jandro

90'▲Edu García←▼Diego García

Covadonga substitutes

CarreroÁlvarezGarcía

Match Recap: Real Avilés vs Covadonga

Real Avilés and Covadonga drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on August 23, 2019.

Goals: Borja Granda (12'), Edu Font (47').

The match was played at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta in Avilés.

Real Avilés vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Avilés vs Covadonga