Covadonga 3–0 Real Avilés: Result & Stats

Covadonga

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Avilés

Jaime Álvarez 62' (pen)

Álex García 53'

Simón Carrero 19'

1/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Covadonga53%

×Draw25%

Real Avilés23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CovadongaExpected goals in this matchReal Avilés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

Covadonga

1.64

Real Avilés

0.98

Covadonga creates 67% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 28 away

1.99

creates per match

1.18

0.78

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Covadonga

1.99

Real Avilés

1.18

allows per match

Covadonga

0.78

Real Avilés

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Real Avilés →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw

77%

Covadonga or Real Avilés

75%

Draw or Real Avilés

47%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+

28%

Real Avilés wins by 2+

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals

81%

Covadonga 2+ goals

49%

Covadonga 3+ goals

23%

Real Avilés 1+ goals

62%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

26%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)

70%

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.64

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Covadonga scores more

53%

level

25%

Real Avilés scores more

23%

Covadonga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

José Fernández← G. Cedrez

19'

Simón Carrero

46'

Miguel Alonso← Félix Sanz

53'

Álex García

58'

Manu Rodríguez← Alvaro Del Rio

58'

Pablo Peláez← Simón Carrero

62'

Jaime ÁlvarezPenalty

65'

Jandro← Jaime Álvarez

67'

Maxi Llobera← Pelayo Megido

Covadonga

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Carrero

Manager: Fermín Álvarez

58'▲Manu Rodríguez←▼Alvaro Del Rio

58'▲Pablo Peláez←▼Simón Carrero

65'▲Jandro←▼Jaime Álvarez

Covadonga substitutes

RodríguezPeláezJandro

Manager: César Gálvez

12'▲José Fernández←▼G. Cedrez

46'▲Miguel Alonso←▼Félix Sanz

67'▲Maxi Llobera←▼Pelayo Megido

Real Avilés substitutes

FernándezAlonsoLlobera