Real Avilés 3–0 Avilés Stadium: Result & Stats

Real Avilés

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Avilés Stadium

R. Albuquerque 80'

Natalio 38', 17'

1/10/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio Román Suárez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Avilés51%

×Draw25%

Avilés Stadium24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real AvilésExpected goals in this matchAvilés Stadium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.06

Real Avilés

1.65

Avilés Stadium

1.06

Real Avilés creates 56% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 80 away

1.54

creates per match

0.85

1.27

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Real Avilés

1.54

Avilés Stadium

0.85

allows per match

Real Avilés

1.27

Avilés Stadium

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Avilés Stadium →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw

76%

Real Avilés or Avilés Stadium

75%

Draw or Avilés Stadium

49%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+

27%

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

81%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

49%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

23%

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

65%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

29%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

68%

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.54 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Real Avilés defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Avilés scores more

51%

level

25%

Avilés Stadium scores more

24%

Real Avilés at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Natalio

38'

Natalio

47'

Sergio Fernández← C. Mabwati

59'

Chini← J. Ciarrocchi

59'

Jaime Ramos← M. Sidibe

59'

Wisi← Aitor González

62'

Benéitez← Vitolo

80'

R. Albuquerque

83'

Rafael Silveira← Natalio

85'

Pelayo García← N. Ruiz

Real

Avilés

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Natalio

Manager: Abraham Albarrán

47'▲Sergio Fernández←▼C. Mabwati

62'▲Benéitez←▼Vitolo

83'▲Rafael Silveira←▼Natalio

Real Avilés substitutes

FernándezBenéitezSilveira

Manager: Lucho Valera

59'▲Chini←▼J. Ciarrocchi

59'▲Jaime Ramos←▼M. Sidibe

59'▲Wisi←▼Aitor González

85'▲Pelayo García←▼N. Ruiz

Avilés Stadium substitutes

ChiniRamosWisiGarcía

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Avilés 3–0 Avilés Stadium

Real Avilés beat Avilés Stadium 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 10, 2021.

Goals: Natalio (17', 38'), R. Albuquerque (80').

The match was played at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta in Avilés.

Real Avilés vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Avilés 3–0 Avilés Stadium