Avilés Stadium 1–1 Real Avilés: Result & Stats

Avilés Stadium

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Avilés

Adrián Sánchez 57'

Natalio 56'

10/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Avilés Stadium31%

×Draw29%

Real Avilés40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avilés StadiumExpected goals in this matchReal Avilés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.19

Avilés Stadium

1.02

Real Avilés

1.19

Real Avilés creates 17% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

0.74

creates per match

1.18

1.20

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Avilés Stadium

0.74

Real Avilés

1.18

allows per match

Avilés Stadium

1.20

Real Avilés

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Real Avilés →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw

60%

Avilés Stadium or Real Avilés

71%

Draw or Real Avilés

69%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

12%

Real Avilés wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

64%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

27%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

70%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

33%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

44%

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more

31%

level

29%

Real Avilés scores more

40%

Real Avilés at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Daniel Liñares← Guille Vázquez

56'

56'

56'

57'

76'

Rafael Silveira← Benéitez

89'

R. Albuquerque← Eduardo Cruz

Avilés

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Lucho Valera

56'▲Fran Momparler←▼Wisi

56'▲Chini←▼Jaime Ramos

Avilés Stadium substitutes

MomparlerChini

Manager: Abraham Albarrán

52'▲Daniel Liñares←▼Guille Vázquez

76'▲Rafael Silveira←▼Benéitez

89'▲R. Albuquerque←▼Eduardo Cruz

Real Avilés substitutes

LiñaresSilveiraAlbuquerque