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Real Ávila vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
2/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Real Ávila50%
×Draw27%
Mirandés II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.46
Mirandés II
0.90

Real Ávila creates 62% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 112 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
77%
Real Ávila or Mirandés II
73%
Draw or Mirandés II
50%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
25%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
77%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
43%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
18%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
59%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
23%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
68%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Ávila scores more
50%
level
27%
Mirandés II scores more
23%

Real Ávila at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Real Ávila 3–1 Mirandés II

Real Ávila beat Mirandés II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.