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Mirandés II vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Ávila
Real Ávila
10/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Mirandés II37%
×Draw29%
Real Ávila34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.13
Real Ávila
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 76 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Real Ávila
1.14

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Real Ávila
0.91

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Real Ávila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
66%
Mirandés II or Real Ávila
71%
Draw or Real Ávila
63%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
15%
Real Ávila wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
68%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
31%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
11%
Real Ávila 1+ goals
65%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
29%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
52%
Real Ávila (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mirandés II scores more
37%
level
29%
Real Ávila scores more
34%

Mirandés II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Mirandés II 0–0 Real Ávila

Mirandés II and Real Ávila drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.