Real Ávila vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 76+ matches
Real Ávila51%
La Virgen del Camino23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Ávila creates 67% more chances
Season form · 76 home / 111 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Ávila ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches
La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Ávila attack 1.58 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50
La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Real Ávila at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Atlético Tordesillas
Guijuelo
Cristo Atlético
Palencia CF
UD Santa Marta
Atlético Mansillés
Almazán
Mirandés IILa Virgen del Camino
Cultural Leonesa II
Villaralbo
Arandina
Colegios Diocesanos
Bembibre
Unionistas II
Mojados
Becerril Campos
Numancia IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Real Ávila host La Virgen del Camino on Sunday, 20 November 2022 at 16:00. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019/2020 season.
Real Ávila 1 – 3 La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino beat Real Ávila 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 20, 2022.
Goals: Mario Visa (44' pen, 74'), Miguel Angel (46'), Fran Adeva (87').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.