La Virgen del Camino 0–1 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

La Virgen del Camino

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Ávila

1/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

La Virgen del Camino34%

×Draw30%

Real Ávila35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Virgen del CaminoExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.03

La Virgen del Camino

1.01

Real Ávila

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 76 away

1.10

creates per match

1.14

0.93

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino

1.10

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino

0.93

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Real Ávila →

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw

65%

La Virgen del Camino or Real Ávila

70%

Draw or Real Ávila

66%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+

13%

Real Ávila wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals

64%

La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals

27%

La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

64%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

28%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)

49%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more

34%

level

30%

Real Ávila scores more

35%

Real Ávila at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff