Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Ávila vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
CANC
00:00
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 34Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Ávila59%
×Draw25%
La Bañeza16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.63
La Bañeza
0.72

Real Ávila creates 126% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
84%
Real Ávila or La Bañeza
75%
Draw or La Bañeza
41%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
32%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
80%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
48%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
22%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
51%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
16%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
78%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.63

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Ávila scores more
59%
level
25%
La Bañeza scores more
16%

Real Ávila at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Ávila face La Bañeza (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 returns with Real Ávila hosting La Bañeza. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Ávila host La Bañeza at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.