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La Bañeza vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Bañeza
La Bañeza
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Ávila
Real Ávila
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Estadio La Llanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Bañeza27%
×Draw28%
Real Ávila45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Bañeza
0.97
Real Ávila
1.32

Real Ávila creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

creates per match

La Bañeza
1.03
Real Ávila
1.14

allows per match

La Bañeza
1.50
Real Ávila
0.91

finishing

La Bañeza+0.00on par
Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Bañeza ↓

Real Ávila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

La Bañeza or draw
55%
La Bañeza or Real Ávila
72%
Draw or Real Ávila
73%

Winning margin

La Bañeza wins by 2+
10%
Real Ávila wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

La Bañeza 1+ goals
62%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
25%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
7%
Real Ávila 1+ goals
73%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
38%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

La Bañeza (draw refunded)
38%
Real Ávila (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Bañeza at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Bañeza attack 1.03 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + La Bañeza defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

La Bañeza scores more
27%
level
28%
Real Ávila scores more
45%

Real Ávila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Bañeza 0–2 Real Ávila

Real Ávila beat La Bañeza 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Llanera in La Bañeza.