Real Ávila 0–0 Colegios Diocesanos: Result & Stats

Real Ávila

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colegios Diocesanos

12/3/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Real Ávila60%

×Draw25%

Colegios Diocesanos15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real ÁvilaExpected goals in this matchColegios Diocesanos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.66

Real Ávila

1.58

Colegios Diocesanos

0.66

Real Ávila creates 139% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 66 away

1.58

creates per match

0.56

0.75

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Real Ávila

1.58

Colegios Diocesanos

0.56

allows per match

Real Ávila

0.75

Colegios Diocesanos

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw

85%

Real Ávila or Colegios Diocesanos

75%

Draw or Colegios Diocesanos

40%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+

32%

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

79%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

47%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

21%

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals

48%

Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals

14%

Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

79%

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Ávila scores more

60%

level

25%

Colegios Diocesanos scores more

15%

Real Ávila at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Colegios Diocesanos

Real Ávila and Colegios Diocesanos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.

Real Ávila vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Ávila vs Colegios Diocesanos