Colegios Diocesanos 1–5 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

Colegios Diocesanos

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Real Ávila

4/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 30Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos27%

×Draw28%

Real Ávila45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colegios DiocesanosExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.30

Colegios Diocesanos

0.93

Real Ávila

1.30

Real Ávila creates 40% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 76 away

0.94

creates per match

1.14

1.47

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos

0.94

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos

1.47

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Real Ávila →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw

55%

Colegios Diocesanos or Real Ávila

72%

Draw or Real Ávila

73%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+

Real Ávila wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals

61%

Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals

24%

Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

73%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

37%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)

37%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more

27%

level

28%

Real Ávila scores more

45%

Real Ávila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colegios Diocesanos vs Real Ávila

Real Ávila beat Colegios Diocesanos 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.

Colegios Diocesanos vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Colegios Diocesanos vs Real Ávila