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Real Ávila vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Real Ávila62%
×Draw23%
Ciudad Rodrigo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.79
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

Real Ávila creates 142% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 34 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Ciudad Rodrigo
2.00

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
85%
Real Ávila or Ciudad Rodrigo
77%
Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo
38%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
36%
Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
83%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
53%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
26%
Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
52%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
17%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
81%
Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Real Ávila scores more
62%
level
23%
Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
15%

Real Ávila at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Ávila 4 – 1 Ciudad Rodrigo

Real Ávila beat Ciudad Rodrigo 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.