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Ciudad Rodrigo vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Ávila
Real Ávila
11/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo29%
×Draw28%
Real Ávila44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.03
Real Ávila
1.33

Real Ávila creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.15
Real Ávila
1.14

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.53
Real Ávila
0.91

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par
Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Real Ávila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw
56%
Ciudad Rodrigo or Real Ávila
72%
Draw or Real Ávila
71%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
11%
Real Ávila wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
64%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
28%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
9%
Real Ávila 1+ goals
74%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
38%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
40%
Real Ávila (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
29%
level
28%
Real Ávila scores more
44%

Real Ávila at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Ciudad Rodrigo 1–0 Real Ávila

Ciudad Rodrigo beat Real Ávila 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos in Salamanca.