Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Ávila vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
11/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Real Ávila45%
×Draw29%
Burgos Promesas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.26
Burgos Promesas
0.89

Real Ávila creates 42% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 63 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Burgos Promesas
1.02

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Burgos Promesas
0.94

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
74%
Real Ávila or Burgos Promesas
71%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
55%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
20%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
72%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
36%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
13%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
59%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
22%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
63%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.26

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Ávila scores more
45%
level
29%
Burgos Promesas scores more
26%

Real Ávila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Ávila 2 – 0 Burgos Promesas

Real Ávila beat Burgos Promesas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez in Ávila.