Burgos Promesas 1–0 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

Burgos Promesas

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Ávila

1/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Burgos Promesas40%

×Draw29%

Real Ávila30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burgos PromesasExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.98

Burgos Promesas

1.18

Real Ávila

0.98

Burgos Promesas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 76 away

1.45

creates per match

1.14

0.83

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Burgos Promesas

1.45

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

Burgos Promesas

0.83

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Real Ávila →

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw

70%

Burgos Promesas or Real Ávila

71%

Draw or Real Ávila

60%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

17%

Real Ávila wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

69%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

33%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

12%

Real Ávila 1+ goals

62%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

26%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

57%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.18

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more

40%

level

29%

Real Ávila scores more

30%

Burgos Promesas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Real Ávila

Burgos Promesas beat Real Ávila 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares in Burgos.

Burgos Promesas vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Real Ávila