Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Ávila vs Bupolsa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Ávila
Real Ávila
CANC
00:00
Bupolsa
Bupolsa
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Ávila54%
×Draw27%
Bupolsa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Ávila
1.47
Bupolsa
0.78

Real Ávila creates 88% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

creates per match

Real Ávila
1.58
Bupolsa
0.81

allows per match

Real Ávila
0.75
Bupolsa
1.35

finishing

Real Ávila+0.00on par
Bupolsa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Ávila ↓

Bupolsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Ávila or draw
80%
Real Ávila or Bupolsa
73%
Draw or Bupolsa
46%

Winning margin

Real Ávila wins by 2+
27%
Bupolsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals
77%
Real Ávila 2+ goals
43%
Real Ávila 3+ goals
18%
Bupolsa 1+ goals
54%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
18%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Ávila (draw refunded)
73%
Bupolsa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Ávila at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 76 matches

Bupolsa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Ávila attack 1.58 + Bupolsa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bupolsa attack 0.81 + Real Ávila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Ávila scores more
54%
level
27%
Bupolsa scores more
20%

Real Ávila at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Ávila host Bupolsa

March 22, 2020: Real Ávila take on Bupolsa in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Ávila host Bupolsa at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.