Bupolsa 1–0 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

Bupolsa

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Ávila

10/20/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Nuevo Campo San Amaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bupolsa28%

×Draw31%

Real Ávila40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BupolsaExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.07

Bupolsa

0.85

Real Ávila

1.07

Real Ávila creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

0.80

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Bupolsa

0.80

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

Bupolsa

1.00

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bupolsa+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bupolsa ↓

Real Ávila →

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bupolsa or draw

60%

Bupolsa or Real Ávila

69%

Draw or Real Ávila

72%

Winning margin

Bupolsa wins by 2+

Real Ávila wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bupolsa 1+ goals

57%

Bupolsa 2+ goals

21%

Bupolsa 3+ goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

66%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

29%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bupolsa (draw refunded)

41%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bupolsa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bupolsa attack 0.80 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Bupolsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bupolsa scores more

28%

level

31%

Real Ávila scores more

40%

Real Ávila at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff