Real Aranjuez 0–1 Madrid 2021 FP: Result & Stats

Real Aranjuez

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Madrid 2021 FP

1/7/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez30%

×Draw27%

Madrid 2021 FP43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real AranjuezExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.39

Real Aranjuez

1.12

Madrid 2021 FP

1.39

Madrid 2021 FP creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

0.90

creates per match

1.26

1.52

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Real Aranjuez

0.90

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

Real Aranjuez

1.52

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw

57%

Real Aranjuez or Madrid 2021 FP

73%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

70%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

12%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

67%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

31%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

10%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

75%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

40%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

41%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more

30%

level

27%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

43%

Madrid 2021 FP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Aranjuez vs Madrid 2021 FP

Madrid 2021 FP beat Real Aranjuez 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.

Real Aranjuez vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Aranjuez vs Madrid 2021 FP