Madrid 2021 FP 1–0 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

Madrid 2021 FP

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Aranjuez

4/23/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio La Aldehuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Madrid 2021 FP55%

×Draw23%

Real Aranjuez22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid 2021 FPExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.08

Madrid 2021 FP

1.83

Real Aranjuez

1.08

Madrid 2021 FP creates 69% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 31 away

1.37

creates per match

0.81

1.34

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.37

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid 2021 FP ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Madrid 2021 FP or draw

78%

Madrid 2021 FP or Real Aranjuez

77%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

45%

Winning margin

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

31%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

Team goals

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

84%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

54%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

28%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

66%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

29%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

71%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Madrid 2021 FP at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.37 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

55%

level

23%

Real Aranjuez scores more

22%

Madrid 2021 FP at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Madrid 2021 FP vs Real Aranjuez

Madrid 2021 FP beat Real Aranjuez 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Aldehuela in Fuenlabrada.

Madrid 2021 FP vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Madrid 2021 FP vs Real Aranjuez