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Real Aranjuez vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leganés II
Leganés II
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez25%
×Draw24%
Leganés II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.11
Leganés II
1.71

Leganés II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 79 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
49%
Real Aranjuez or Leganés II
76%
Draw or Leganés II
75%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
9%
Leganés II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
67%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
30%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
10%
Leganés II 1+ goals
82%
Leganés II 2+ goals
51%
Leganés II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
32%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
25%
level
24%
Leganés II scores more
51%

Leganés II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Aranjuez vs Leganés II

Real Aranjuez and Leganés II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.