Leganés II 1–0 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

Leganés II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Aranjuez

11/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Estadio Anexo Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Leganés II62%

×Draw22%

Real Aranjuez16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leganés IIExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.81

Leganés II

1.85

Real Aranjuez

0.81

Leganés II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 31 away

1.41

creates per match

0.81

0.82

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Leganés II

1.41

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

Leganés II

0.82

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw

84%

Leganés II or Real Aranjuez

78%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

38%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+

36%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals

84%

Leganés II 2+ goals

55%

Leganés II 3+ goals

28%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

56%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

19%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)

80%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.85

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Leganés II scores more

62%

level

22%

Real Aranjuez scores more

16%

Leganés II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff