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Real Aranjuez vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez28%
×Draw27%
Las Rozas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.02
Las Rozas
1.38

Las Rozas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 88 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Las Rozas
1.23

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Las Rozas
1.15

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
55%
Real Aranjuez or Las Rozas
73%
Draw or Las Rozas
72%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
10%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
64%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
27%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
8%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
75%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
40%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
38%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
28%
level
27%
Las Rozas scores more
45%

Las Rozas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Real Aranjuez 0–1 Las Rozas

Las Rozas beat Real Aranjuez 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.