Las Rozas 0–0 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

Las Rozas

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Aranjuez

3/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Las Rozas62%

×Draw21%

Real Aranjuez17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.97

Las Rozas

2.04

Real Aranjuez

0.97

Las Rozas creates 110% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 31 away

1.78

creates per match

0.81

1.13

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.78

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.13

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

83%

Las Rozas or Real Aranjuez

79%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

38%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

38%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

87%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

60%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

33%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

62%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

25%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

78%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Las Rozas scores more

62%

level

21%

Real Aranjuez scores more

17%

Las Rozas at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Las Rozas 0–0 Real Aranjuez

Las Rozas and Real Aranjuez drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.

Las Rozas vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Las Rozas 0–0 Real Aranjuez