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Real Aranjuez vs Getafe II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Getafe II
Getafe II
1/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez25%
×Draw27%
Getafe II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
0.95
Getafe II
1.41

Getafe II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Getafe II
1.29

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Getafe II
1.00

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
52%
Real Aranjuez or Getafe II
73%
Draw or Getafe II
75%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
9%
Getafe II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
61%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
25%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
7%
Getafe II 1+ goals
76%
Getafe II 2+ goals
41%
Getafe II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
35%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
25%
level
27%
Getafe II scores more
48%

Getafe II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Aranjuez 0 – 0 Getafe II

Real Aranjuez and Getafe II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.