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Getafe II vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
9/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Getafe II63%
×Draw21%
Real Aranjuez16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
2.00
Real Aranjuez
0.91

Getafe II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 31 away

creates per match

Getafe II
1.71
Real Aranjuez
0.81

allows per match

Getafe II
1.00
Real Aranjuez
2.29

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Real Aranjuez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
84%
Getafe II or Real Aranjuez
79%
Draw or Real Aranjuez
37%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
38%
Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
86%
Getafe II 2+ goals
59%
Getafe II 3+ goals
32%
Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
60%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
23%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
79%
Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 1.71 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.00

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Getafe II scores more
63%
level
21%
Real Aranjuez scores more
16%

Getafe II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Getafe II 4 – 1 Real Aranjuez

Getafe II beat Real Aranjuez 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1 in Getafe.