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Real Aranjuez vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
El Álamo
El Álamo
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez41%
×Draw27%
El Álamo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.36
El Álamo
1.19

Real Aranjuez creates 14% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
67%
Real Aranjuez or El Álamo
73%
Draw or El Álamo
59%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
19%
El Álamo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
74%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
39%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
16%
El Álamo 1+ goals
70%
El Álamo 2+ goals
33%
El Álamo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
55%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
41%
level
27%
El Álamo scores more
33%

Real Aranjuez at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Aranjuez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Aranjuez vs El Álamo

Real Aranjuez beat El Álamo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.