Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

El Álamo vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

El Álamo
El Álamo
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

El Álamo55%
×Draw23%
Real Aranjuez22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Álamo
1.86
Real Aranjuez
1.08

El Álamo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 31 away

creates per match

El Álamo
1.43
Real Aranjuez
0.81

allows per match

El Álamo
1.36
Real Aranjuez
2.29

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par
Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

Real Aranjuez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw
78%
El Álamo or Real Aranjuez
77%
Draw or Real Aranjuez
45%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+
32%
Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals
84%
El Álamo 2+ goals
55%
El Álamo 3+ goals
28%
Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
66%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
29%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)
72%
Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

El Álamo scores more
55%
level
23%
Real Aranjuez scores more
22%

El Álamo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: El Álamo 3–4 Real Aranjuez

Real Aranjuez beat El Álamo 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Facundo Rivas in El Álamo.