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Real Aranjuez vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez27%
×Draw27%
Alcorcón II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.00
Alcorcón II
1.39

Alcorcón II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 97 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
54%
Real Aranjuez or Alcorcón II
73%
Draw or Alcorcón II
73%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
10%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
63%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
26%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
8%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
75%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
40%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
37%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
27%
level
27%
Alcorcón II scores more
46%

Alcorcón II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Aranjuez vs Alcorcón II

Real Aranjuez and Alcorcón II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.